Harare, Zimbabwe – A deepening power struggle at the highest levels of Zimbabwe’s government has erupted into open warfare, with Vice President Constantino Chiwenga’s family and military career now in the crosshairs. New allegations, circulating widely in political and security circles, claim that President Emmerson Mnangagwa made a “deadly mistake” by underestimating Chiwenga’s resolve, and that the Vice President’s son may soon be forced out of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. The unfolding drama threatens to destabilise an already fragile ruling alliance and could trigger a succession crisis with regional implications.
The Claim: A Son’s Career on the Line
“This is not just about one officer’s career – it is a declaration of war inside the ruling party,” said Dr. Pedzisayi Ruhanya, a Zimbabwean political commentator who tracks military-civilian relations. “Mnangagwa appears to be trying to send a message that no one, not even the Vice President’s bloodline, is beyond his reach. But Chiwenga commands fierce loyalty among rank-and-file soldiers. If the President overplays his hand, he could fracture the army and invite a counter-strike.”
Background: The Generals’ Rivalry
The rivalry between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga is not new. It dates back to the 2017 coup that ousted Robert Mugabe, which Chiwenga orchestrated and Mnangagwa inherited. For years, the two men have maintained an uneasy truce, dividing control of the state apparatus: Mnangagwa holds the civilian political machinery, while Chiwenga retains deep influence over the military and intelligence services. However, the simmering tension has escalated sharply in recent months as Mnangagwa signals his intention to seek a third term in 2028 – a move that would block Chiwenga’s long-expected ascent to the presidency.
In February 2024, Chiwenga underwent medical treatment in China, fuelling speculation about his health and political future. While he returned to Zimbabwe, he has been less visible in public, leading some to believe that Mnangagwa is consolidating power in his absence. The latest allegations about the Vice President’s son suggest that the President is now moving from political marginalisation to outright retaliation.
Geopolitical Context: Southern Africa on Edge
The struggle for Zimbabwe’s next leader has profound implications for the entire Southern African region. Zimbabwe remains a key state in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and any instability in Harare risks spilling over into neighbouring countries. South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique already grapple with cross-border crime, economic migration, and energy insecurity linked to Zimbabwe’s crisis. A military split in Zimbabwe could undermine regional peacekeeping efforts, particularly in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, where Zimbabwean troops are deployed.
“The international community is watching very closely,” said Dr. Tafadzwa Chikwanha, a security analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. “If Mnangagwa forces a confrontation with Chiwenga, he risks triggering a chain reaction that could undo years of fragile stability. The last thing Southern Africa needs is another armed power struggle in a country that already battles hyperinflation, food shortages, and a broken healthcare system.”
Economic fallout is already visible. The Zimbabwe dollar has lost more than 80% of its value against the US dollar in the past year, and the government has been forced to introduce a new gold-backed currency (ZiG) to stem hyperinflation. Investors, already wary of the country’s opaque rule of law, are now factoring in political risk premiums on any new capital. If the power struggle escalates into open conflict within the security forces, capital flight could accelerate, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
What Happens Next? A Dangerous Calculus
For now, both Mnangagwa and Chiwenga are playing a high-stakes game of brinkmanship. The President has tightened his grip on the ZANU-PF party machinery, sidelining Chiwenga loyalists in recent party congress appointments. But the military remains the ultimate arbiter of power in Zimbabwe. Chiwenga’s network of officers, many of whom fought alongside him during the liberation war and the 2017 coup, are unlikely to accept the humiliation of their patron’s son without consequence.
Some analysts warn that the Vice President could use his residual authority to stage a counter-move, either by mobilising sympathetic commanders or by leaking damaging intelligence about corruption or human rights abuses within Mnangagwa’s inner circle. Others believe that Mnangagwa has already prepared his own insurance policy, including a purge of Chiwenga-aligned commanders and the elevation of loyalists from the younger generation of officers.
In a country where the military has historically determined who rules, the decision to target a senior general’s family may prove to be the most reckless gamble of Mnangagwa’s career. As one retired army colonel put it, speaking on condition of anonymity: “In Zimbabwe, you do not poke a sleeping lion – especially one that still has claws. The President may have just woken the beast.”
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