The video, which has been widely shared on social media and messaging platforms, shows individuals speaking in a mix of Shona and Ndebele declaring that Chiwenga must ‘back off’ or face consequences. While the exact words are obscured by poor audio, the message is clear: a faction loyal to President Emmerson Mnangagwa, often labelled the ‘Presidential Mafia’ by party insiders, is preparing to move against the Vice President. Political analysts say the threat is a direct response to Chiwenga’s increasingly open manoeuvring to position himself as Mnangagwa’s successor.
The Rise of the ‘Presidential Mafia’
Chiwenga, a former army general who played a key role in the 2017 coup that brought Mnangagwa to power, has been steadily building his own faction. He has publicly clashed with Mnangagwa allies over economic policy, and recent cabinet reshuffles have sidelined several Chiwenga loyalists. The Vice President’s camp believes the ‘Presidential Mafia’ is behind a campaign of subtle harassment, including the arrest of his allies on corruption charges. The explicit threat in the video suggests the gloves are coming off.
Geopolitical Stakes for Southern Africa
The power struggle inside Zanu PF is not a domestic matter. Zimbabwe remains a linchpin of Southern Africa’s security architecture. A violent factional showdown would send shockwaves through the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which already struggles with instability in Mozambique, the DRC, and Lesotho. ‘Any implosion in Zimbabwe would create a humanitarian and security crisis that could spill across borders,’ warns Dr. Lindiwe Nkosi-Thomas, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. ‘South Africa, Botswana, and Zambia would face refugee flows, economic disruption, and potential spillover of armed conflict.’
The timing is particularly dangerous. Zimbabwe is grappling with hyperinflation, a collapsing currency, and a drought that has left millions food insecure. The ruling party’s internal war diverts attention from governance and could trigger a violent crackdown on opposition and civil society. Already, reports of factional violence in Zanu PF youth wings have emerged from provinces like Masvingo and Manicaland. In March 2024, a Chiwenga supporter was abducted and beaten by suspected party militias, a pattern that analysts say is now accelerating.
Furthermore, the threat to Chiwenga undermines the fragile power-sharing deal that has kept Zimbabwe’s competing elites from open conflict since 2017. Mnangagwa has not publicly disavowed the video or the faction, leaving many to conclude he is either unable or unwilling to control his own allies. ‘A president who cannot control his own party’s violent fringe is a danger to the region,’ says Ruhanya.
The international community has taken note. The United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom have all expressed concern over rising political violence in Zimbabwe. A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said in a statement, ‘We are closely monitoring reports of factional threats within Zanu PF. Any attempt to subvert constitutional order or engage in political violence will have consequences.’ But with Western sanctions still in place, Washington’s leverage is limited. China, Zimbabwe’s largest investor and patron, has remained silent, but Beijing’s preference for stability means it may pressure Mnangagwa to rein in the mafia if the situation escalates.
What Happens Next?
The immediate danger is that the ‘Presidential Mafia’ may attempt a physical attack on Chiwenga or his inner circle. The Vice President is heavily guarded, but his allies are vulnerable. There is also the possibility of a pre-emptive move by Chiwenga, who retains deep loyalty among mid-level military officers. ‘This is a classic standoff,’ says Nkosi-Thomas. ‘Both sides have guns. Both sides have money. Both sides believe they are fighting for survival. That is a recipe for bloodshed.’
For ordinary Zimbabweans, the factional showdown is a distraction from the daily struggle for bread and medicine. But it could soon become their reality. If Zanu PF splits, the government could be paralysed, triggering a power vacuum that the opposition, led by Nelson Chamisa’s Citizens Coalition for Change, is not strong enough to fill. The last time Zanu PF descended into fratricidal violence in 2017, the military stepped in to remove Robert Mugabe. That outcome was relatively peaceful. This time, history may not repeat itself softly.
The video, now viral, is a stark warning: Zimbabwe’s ruling party is on the brink of a factional war, and the ‘Presidential Mafia’ has drawn a line in the sand. The region watches with bated breath.
