The claim, which has been circulating among party insiders and on social media platforms, paints a picture of an increasingly brittle leadership struggle at the top of Africa’s second-longest-ruling party. While neither the presidency nor the vice president’s office has commented, the narrative underscores the deep factional fault lines that have defined Zimbabwe’s politics since the 2017 military-assisted transition that brought Mnangagwa to power.
The Tagwirei factor: A businessman at the center of power
Kudakwashe Tagwirei, the founder of the Sakunda Holdings energy and mining conglomerate, has long been viewed as Mnangagwa’s key financial ally and fixer. Under the president’s administration, Tagwirei has amassed vast influence over fuel, mining, and agricultural contracts, often benefiting from state tenders and regulatory favor. Critics have accused him of using his proximity to the president to build an economic empire while ordinary Zimbabweans endure hyperinflation, currency collapse, and a grinding cost-of-living crisis.
‘What we are seeing is a classic succession battle dressed in factional colours,’ said a Harare-based political analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. ‘Chiwenga has never hidden his ambition, and Mnangagwa knows that his own survival after 2028 depends on who succeeds him. Tagwirei was sent to do the president’s dirty work, but the VP turned the tables.’
The broader Zimbabwe crisis: Why this matters for Southern Africa
The Chiwenga-Mnangagwa power struggle is not merely a palace intrigue. It carries profound consequences for Zimbabwe’s already battered economy and for regional stability in Southern Africa. Since the 2017 coup that ousted Robert Mugabe—in which Chiwenga, then army commander, played a decisive role—the country has lurched from one crisis to another. Inflation exceeded 500% in 2023, the Zimbabwe dollar has been repeatedly devalued, and nearly 80% of the workforce operates in the informal sector. The political uncertainty at the top only deepens investor mistrust and delays desperately needed reforms.
Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states are watching closely. Zimbabwe’s instability has a direct impact on its neighbors: South Africa hosts an estimated two million Zimbabwean migrants, while Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique share porous borders that facilitate smuggling and cross-border crime. A prolonged succession crisis could embolden these illicit networks and complicate SADC’s efforts to revive the regional economy through the African Continental Free Trade Area.
‘If the ruling party implodes, the whole region will feel the aftershocks,’ said Dr. Tafadzwa Mukuhlani, a senior fellow at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. ‘We saw in 2017 how quickly a change in Harare can affect regional diplomatic alignments. The Tagwirei-Chiwenga clash suggests the succession war has already entered its active phase.’
Meanwhile, the military, which has been a kingmaker in every transition since independence, remains the wild card. Chiwenga retains deep loyalty among senior officers, many of whom were his protégés during his tenure as army commander. Mnangagwa, by contrast, has attempted to purge the army of Chiwenga loyalists through early retirements and promotions—a strategy that has only deepened resentment.
Tagwirei’s involvement adds a dangerous layer of cronyism. His Sakunda Holdings is heavily indebted to state-owned banks, and any political shift could trigger a cascade of defaults. ‘Tagwirei is not just a businessman; he is a political weapon,’ said an economist at the University of Zimbabwe who requested anonymity. ‘His economic empire depends entirely on Mnangagwa’s protection. If Chiwenga gains the upper hand, Tagwirei’s assets could become targets.’
The claims of Mnangagwa deploying Tagwirei to stop Chiwenga remain unverified. Both the presidency and Tagwirei’s spokespeople have not responded to requests for comment. However, the fact that the narrative has gained traction in Harare’s rumor mills—and even on state-aligned platforms—indicates that the succession battle has moved from the shadows into public discourse.
For ordinary Zimbabweans, the power struggle is a distraction from bread-and-butter issues. The cost of a basic food basket now consumes 120% of the average monthly wage. Schools and hospitals are crumbling under decades of neglect. Yet the political elite appears consumed by jockeying for position ahead of 2028—a year that could mark either a peaceful transition or yet another crisis.
As one weary Harare resident put it: ‘They fight for power while we fight for survival. The outcome of their war will decide whether we get bread or more bullets.’ The truth of the Chiwenga maneuver and Tagwirei’s counter-role may remain opaque for now. But the stakes for Zimbabwe—and the wider Southern African region—are unmistakably high.
Editors note: This article is based on unverified claims from party insiders and publicly available sources. No official comment has been obtained at the time of publication.
