HARARE, Zimbabwe – Temba Mliswa, a former ZANU-PF heavyweight who has often served as a lightning rod for internal party tensions, has directly confronted the explosive allegations that Vice President Constantino Chiwenga is plotting a coup, a development that threatens to deepen the ruling party’s factional warfare and unsettle an already fragile Southern African region.
The Allegations and Their Roots
Rumors of a Chiwenga-led coup have circulated since early 2024, fueled by the vice president’s increasing isolation from Mnangagwa’s inner circle, military reshuffles at key bases, and the sudden relocation of armored units in Harare. Chiwenga’s faction, drawn largely from the security establishment and war veterans, has long been at odds with the civilian wing of ZANU-PF loyal to Mnangagwa. Mliswa, who served as a ZANU-PF member of parliament before becoming an independent critic, has deep ties to both camps. His intervention suggests that the tension has moved beyond whispered conspiracies into open political conflict.
“Mliswa does not make statements like this without calculation,” said a senior Harare-based political analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. “He knows that by speaking out he risks retaliation from the security apparatus, but he also knows that silence would allow the situation to spiral. This is a signal that the rift is now public.”
Zimbabwe has a long history of military interference in civilian rule. The 2017 coup—legally recast as a “transition” by the military—ended Mugabe’s 37-year reign and installed Mnangagwa. To many, the current crisis feels like a replay of that playbook. Chiwenga, still revered by the rank-and-file of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, is seen as the only figure capable of marshaling the military against Mnangagwa’s civilian faction. “The question is not whether Chiwenga has the capacity to launch a coup,” said a former senior intelligence official in Harare. “It is whether he has the political will and the backing of the generals. That is what Mliswa is trying to gauge with this statement.”
Regional Repercussions and Economic Fallout
Southern Africa is watching Zimbabwe closely. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), already grappling with instability in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province and post-election tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, cannot afford a major political crisis in its second-largest economy. A coup in Zimbabwe would likely trigger a fresh wave of international sanctions, deepen the country’s economic meltdown, and send thousands more refugees across borders into South Africa, Botswana, and Zambia.
For ordinary Zimbabweans, Mliswa’s video is not abstract political theater. In the high-density suburbs of Harare, where residents struggle with 18-hour daily power outages, collapsing water infrastructure, and empty bank accounts, talk of a coup is met with a mixture of fear and resignation. “We just want peace,” said a shopkeeper in Mbare township. “Every time the politicians fight, we are the ones who suffer. There is no food, no jobs, no hope. Another coup will only make it worse.”
The Mnangagwa administration has so far dismissed the coup claims as “baseless rumors spread by disgruntled elements.” In a statement issued through the Ministry of Information, the government called on Zimbabweans to ignore “mischief makers” and reaffirmed its commitment to constitutional order. But the government’s silence on Mliswa’s specific allegations—rather than a direct denial or legal action—has fueled speculation that the claims may be causing genuine concern at State House.
“If the allegations were entirely without foundation, the government would have arrested Mliswa immediately or issued a detailed rebuttal,” said a Harare-based lawyer specializing in political cases. “The fact that they have done neither suggests they are either waiting to see how the public reacts or they are still trying to assess how deep the plot actually runs.”
Mliswa has a record of breaking important stories that later prove true. In 2020, he was among the first to publicly accuse then-Health Minister Obadiah Moyo of corruption in the COVID-19 procurement scandal—allegations that led to Moyo’s arrest and resignation. Whether his current claims about Chiwenga will hold similar weight remains to be seen, but the lack of any formal government rebuttal has only intensified the scrutiny.
The video comes at a delicate moment for the region. SADC is currently testing a new mediation framework designed to prevent coups in the wake of back-to-back military takeovers in West Africa. If Zimbabwe, a founding member of the bloc, were to experience a successful putsch, it would shatter the credibility of the African Union’s anti-coup architecture and encourage other militaries on the continent to test their own boundaries.
“Southern Africa cannot afford another coup,” said a senior official at the African Union’s Peace and Security Council. “Zimbabwe is not Mali or Burkina Faso. It has a sophisticated security establishment and a deeply entrenched political elite. If Chiwenga moves, it will not be a chaotic grab for power—it will be a surgical operation with long-term consequences for every country in the region.”
As of press time, Vice President Chiwenga had not responded to Mliswa’s video. His office declined to comment. The ZANU-PF national spokesperson, Christopher Mutsvangwa, said the party would “deal with all issues internally” and warned against “inflammatory statements that undermine national stability.”
Mliswa’s video is likely to be the opening salvo in a period of high political drama. In the coming days, analysts expect more leaks, more public defections, and possibly a shake-up in the military command as both factions jockey for position. For Zimbabweans, the only certainty is more uncertainty.
